«We indicated the pain points of our adversary,» – a military expert on the change in Ukraine’s strategy

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There is much talk about the enemy’s low morale, support of Turkey in grain exports, and dramatic change in the Black Sea situation after the Ukrainian attacks on Crimea. Nevertheless, we shouldn’t rely much on these factors, the military expert Petro Chernyk explains. In our studio, we discussed the revision of the Ukrainian army’s approach to the battles, the danger of further missile attacks and the possibility of a Belarusian offensive.

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You have another trip ahead. What mood and feelings are you going with?

We must understand that war is a very serious challenge. Each visit to the demarcation line requires great concentration of will and mind. But you have to go there in order to really understand the front not only from information sources. In addition, I am a regular military serviceman, I have certain responsibilities that are important in my life.

Regarding recent events. What are the most critical points you would note now?

I’d like to note a few points that relate directly to the demarcation line. The first one is very serious: the front has been standing at the so-called equilibrium point for several months now. The enemy cannot move forward with large breakthrough offensive actions more than 10-15 kilometers. Let me remind you that his greatest success was the capture of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Since that time, in fact, the Russians have not seriously advanced. In the area of ​​Pisky, they succeeded for just a few kilometers, which is a shame for the second army in the world, perhaps the most powerful after the US army, as they declare themselves. The fact that the Ukrainians managed to stop this military force with regular conventional weapons, to show incredible tactical skill, is a phenomenon in itself. Moreover, we foiled their blitzkrieg, they failed to build the so-called large operational arc from Kharkiv through Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro to Transnistria – and this is our success.

Read also: When is Ukraine to launch a counteroffensive? Interview with a military expert

The second point is that we indicated the enemy’s real pain points. Now, 95 percent of war is artillery war. We learned to hit their ammunition deep in their rear.

And probably, the most important point: in recent days, we’ve been observing a change in the strategic initiative. Do not confuse this with a breaking point, because these are different things. What I mean is that the Ukrainians realized that our enemy «really likes to smoke», which led to a series of detonations in occupied Crimea. This, in itself, is incredibly good news.

Summing up, I will say: the enemy used all possible weapons, starting with the missile tsunami, a precedent and a historical fact that still needs to be studied, ending with all types of aviation, including strategic aircraft and artillery. They no longer have tools of military pressure on Ukraine, except for weapons of mass destruction.

In our country, the situation is gradually changing, because we are finding military-strategic tools to put pressure on the enemy.

If we analyze the information about the POWs, we can note that now, they are Russian servicemen from St. Petersburg and Moscow. Does this indicate that Russia is already using reserves and does not have enough troops?

On the one hand, it’s a valid observation. But I would not hurry to be fascinated that the enemy is running out of human resources. Indeed, the military group, which has been preparing and invaded Ukraine since last fall, is practically exhausted and quite badly destroyed. Still, the enemy’s total mobilization resource reaches 8 million people, which is an incredible amount. In addition, unlike Ukraine, the Russian Federation has always had a so-called conscript army. It was invented precisely in order to prepare a mobilization resource. In order to restore the skills of using a Kalashnikov assault rifle, several types of grenades and hand grenade launchers such as RPG-18, RPG-22 or RPG-26, it does not take much intelligence, because a few weeks are enough for it. The training of crews for such tanks as the T-34 of the Second World War, which Russians still have in their warehouses and which can be used, the old T-62, T-72, T-80 is not a mega-difficult task. Therefore, you should not succumb to illusions that the enemy is about to run out of resources, because he still has them – both human and technical. In terms of artillery reserves, Russia is the first in the world, today they have about five thousand working barrels of various calibers with practically unlimited shells for them. We understand that this is an existential war both for us and for them. Ukraine and Russia, as they are now, simply won’t get along on the same planet. This is an obvious fact that we must accept. And either they defeat us, or we do it to them. Therefore, you really don’t have to relax.

We now have a lot of news from Belarus regarding exercises and the formation of new battalions. Polish border guards discover tunnels under the wall on the border with Belarus. What is the current situation in that area? What to expect and what to prepare for?

In fact, you can expect anything from them! The enemy cannot be underestimated. I really like the great Chinese military thinker Sun Tzu, who has a very good judgment that can be applied to this: you should not wait that the enemy wouldn’t attack, because he will definitely attack – you should do everything possible so that when he attacks, the price becomes unacceptable for him. 

Read also: Russia accumulates a large number of missile systems near Ukraine’s borders

Today the Belarusians, together with the Russians, have prepared a fairly large land group of up to 13,000 servicemen, which, according to old Soviet standards, is a mechanized division or three full-fledged brigades. And this is extremely serious power. In addition, I would like to remind you that Belarus has been at war with Ukraine since the beginning of the aggression. Large missile strikes, primarily on the territory of western Ukraine, are carried out from Belarus. Lukashenko’s regime and Lukashenko himself, by and large, are already doomed. He is illegitimate and illegal, both in the eyes of his own people and from the viewpoint of the international establishment. You can say that Putin is holding a loaded revolver near Lukashenko’s head, and the only question is when it will fire.

Can we expect a blow from Belarus? Such a possibility should be taken seriously. Is it possible now? It’s a very controversial issue. Right now, ammunition in tens of thousands of tons amounts is being taken out of Belarusian warehouses and transported through Russia to our south-eastern demarcation line. This means that they no longer have full ammunition capacity. So the question arises: how should they fight in such case? Still, they can make a short-term blow, distract attention from the South-Eastern front, even for a short time, causeing great social tension, which will have a certain propaganda effect. In my opinion, if the strike does happen, it will take place in the direction of Kyiv through Zhytomyr Rivne regions. Why? Because there are very dense forests in the north of the Volyn region, there are the so-called Prypyat swamps, with literally two big roads you can drive on. And even at the beginning of the war, we learned how to hit vehicles on the roads with the help of the famous American Javelin and English NLAW complexes. In addition, I am 100% sure that the construction of engineering barriers and concrete barriers has already been completed, and their improvement continues. So the advance will not be an easy walk for the enemy.

There was information about the shelling of the headquarters of one of the «Wagner» private army units, where Prigozhin himself was at that time. How much can such shelling demoralize the opponent and reduce the influence of this mercenary recruiting center?

I always try to be a critical realist. At the moment, there is no reliable information about Prigozhin, so I would not wax lyrical, saying that one of the biggest beasts in the hierarchy of Moscow elites was wounded, this may contribute to something. I don’t think so. Moreover, in my opinion, such a phenomenon as the demoralization of the enemy is very conditional for the Russian way of thinking and their mentality. Russia has never treated its soldiers adequately. This has always been the case: from the wars of aggression unleashed by Ivan the Terrible in the 14th century, the so-called Livonian Wars, to the wars of the tsarist and Bolshevik empires. A soldier was never valuable, just cannon fodder. Their specific mentality is as follows: «for the motherland, for Stalin», and now «for Putin and for his majesty». They will eat grass and still die for it. The tipping point, when they could begin to surrender en masse, is still far away. But how long this level of motivation works, we will test on the right bank of the Dnieper, where a rather powerful group of 12-14 thousand people is currently located. The main command has already left there, but the middle-ranking commanders and the contingent itself have remained, and we will have to «knock them out». There we will see what will happen: fierce battles to the death or surrender. If there is a mass surrender – from 3 to 6 thousand personnel – it will already have a serious effect on the rest of the occupied group. But this point still isn’t quite close.

Zmiinyi island was recaptured, explosions in Crimea… The movement of ships along the Black Sea began, and the President of Turkey has just visited Lviv. To what extent do all these events ensure or reduce the possibility of missile attacks from the Black Sea? And how can this situation develop?

In general, serious missile parity has been achieved in the water area of ​​the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Let me remind you that Ukraine does not have its own full-fledged naval fleet: the frigate «Sagaidachnyi» is sunk, and the small number of missile and artillery boats, the so-called mosquito fleet, cannot claim any parity [the Mosquito fleet is a collection of fast, maneuverable and inconspicuous boats capable of operating in the near sea zone, destroying enemy surface ships and submarines, guarding important objects of maritime infrastructure, bases and ports, providing raiding and special actions of marines and special operations forces, conducting mine countermeasures]. But thanks to our allies, the parity was achieved after receiving good anti-ship missiles of the AGM-84 «Harpoon» class. I would like to remind you that these missiles can fire from 90 to 315 kilometers, and the approximate distance from Odesa to the Sevastopol bays is 300 kilometers. Therefore, the enemy cannot deliver high-quality missile strikes from this part of the sea and is forced to move deeper. At the same time, they have at least five working submarines of the «Varshavyanka» class. They can have on board the infamous Calibers with a firing range of up to 2,600 kilometers, which are inconspicuous targets. To detect and strike it is an incredibly difficult technical and intelligence operational task.

It’s true that the large fleet – missile cruisers and frigates, of which they have enough, as well as large amphibious ships – can no longer enter this zone. The combined strength of their landing force, which can be transported by these large ships, can be up to 3 thousand personnel. But I believe that landings on the Black Sea coast near Odesa are practically reduced to zero now.

I will say a few more words about wheat. I would be very careful about this. Turkey is playing and has only its own interests here. Recall the recent meeting in Sochi, where Erdogan signed a number of documents beneficial to him. After all, the Russian Federation supplied gas to Turkey through the so-called Turkish Stream and continues to do so. And it’s also building a nuclear power plant, certified as it should be [We are talking about the Akkuyu NPP, which is being built on the southern coast of Turkey in the province of Mersin according to a Russian project and will be equipped with four power units]. Plus, Turkey started its military operation in the north of Kurdistan. You have to be very careful with all this. Because as soon as they signed the so-called mirror agreement, the very next day Russia hit our port with missiles. Can it happen again? It’s quite possible. Why are they not hitting yet? In my opinion, because they also have a critical issue of exporting their own wheat. Thanks to this, we have a kind of current parity: they got their sanctions relaxed, export theirs and, in return, gave us permission to export. But this situation can be changed at any moment. The horror of our enemy is that they play business.

Sergiy Smirnov spoke

Text: Marichka Ilyina, translated by Vitalii Holich

Full or partial republication of the text without the written consent of the editors is prohibited and considered a violation of copyright.

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