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Ukrainian defence forces turned the tide of the war with Russia. Amid pressure on the Kherson region and the rapid counteroffensive on the Kharkiv region, they present the occupiers with a terrible dilemma of time and space. This was announced by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to analysts, Kyiv is likely to increasingly dictate the location and nature of major military operations, and the Kremlin will respond inadequately to the growing physical and psychological pressure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine if it fails to find a way to seize the initiative.
«Russia likely lacks sufficient reserve forces to complete the formation of a new defensive line along the Oskil River, as it is reportedly trying to do before Ukrainian forces continue their advance through that position if they so choose. Prudence would demand that Russia pull forces from other sectors of the battlespace to establish defensive lines further east than the Oskil River to ensure that it can hold the Luhansk Oblast border or a line as close to that border as possible,» – military experts say.
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As noted in the Institute, Russian troops around Bakhmut and near Donetsk continue offensive operations, as if they have no suspicions of «danger» for Luhansk. At the same time, the Russian military in Kherson is facing attacks and the threat of new strikes in this direction.
«Putin risks making a common but deadly mistake by waiting too long to order reinforcements to the Luhansk line, thereby compromising the defense of Kherson or ending offensive operations around Bakhmut and Donetsk City without getting troops into position to defend against continuing Ukrainian attacks in Luhansk in time,» – ISW explains.
Analysts note that the campaign of the Ukrainian troops is aimed at putting Russia in a dilemma and benefiting from almost any decision made by the Russian leadership. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will probably have to launch several counteroffensive operations in order to complete the liberation of their territories temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation. The Institute assumes that the war will last until 2023.
Yulia Osym, translated by Vitalii Holich
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