St. Petersburg, Russia | Photo by Anastasiya Romanova on Unsplash
By Vitalii Holich
In 2021, the author, while attending Lviv’s Ukrainian Catholic University, studied with a university program in London, made virtual due to the pandemic. Through that experience he got to know several Russia students and here. For security concerns, we change the responders’ names.
As Russia keeps growing its military presence near the Ukrainian borders, the Putin administration continues telling the world that it doesn’t have any intention to invade Ukraine. The Westerners, as well as Ukrainian leaders, say we mustn’t believe Putin, but the question remains whether we don’t believe his words or his actions.
Andrei, a political science student from Saint Petersburg, Russia’s second capital, hopes for a peaceful resolution on the Russian part and de-escalation. As a liberal-minded representative of the country’s new generation, he doesn’t consider his thoughts the indicator of attitudes in Russian society. Still, he doesn’t support Putin’s aggressive foreign policy. Andrei believes that Russia would suffer seriously if it dares to invade.
«As for the facts, I doubt the possibility of an overt full-fledged conflict – despite the rising uncertainty for Ukraine’s security on part of the US. I do think the geopolitical and economic consequences would be devastating for Russia.»
One of the key aspects of understanding the situation is the motivation of the Russian society and its readiness to the potential war. Andrei assumes that the reaction of the population will most probably not be in favour of Putin’s regime.
«In general, I believe ordinary Russians are not concerned with the possibility of war at all. There’s not much discussion even in the liberal circles and mostly people just mind their own business… Moreover, I don’t think that the population would be supportive of the war: one thing is to annex Crimea covertly, which was endorsed by the public, but when it came to a prolonged bloody conflict in Donbas people, I believe, started doubting the whole affair. Also, I don’t really think there’s a lot to gain from invading Ukraine, but again I might be wrong here» – he claims.
Another Russian, Olga, who currently studies sociology in London, says the situation seems worrying for her, and she doesn’t support any of Putin’s plans in this regard.
«I can see why he’s doing it. His support is falling and the economic situation is not great. Hence, I think he’s hoping for another Crimea effect, which in my opinion won’t happen,» – she states.
City of London | Photo by Anthony DELANOIX on Unsplash
‘Invasion of Ukraine Would Involve Everyday Russians.’ Do the Russian People Want It?
In a more detailed analysis, Andrei also explained the economic and political consequences which, he guesses, may threaten Russia in case it attacks Ukraine.
«Obviously, in economic terms, the invasion would result in a bank crush, just look at the financial sector after Russia sent troops to Kazakhstan,» Andrei said.
Read more from the Wall Street Journal: «Russia’s Border Tensions Translate Into Market Pain.»
«But more importantly, I think the full-scale invasion would require the use of the reservists and guys from conscription-hence the everyday Russian would be affected by the war, in contrast to 2014 events. That might severely undermine Putin, as I see it.»
He believes that the military capacity may be Russia’s only advantage against Ukraine, though things have been changing a lot since 2014. Moreover, the Russian student claims the armed conflict would also undermine Russia’s geopolitical interests.
«Of course, the Russian army is way more capable than the Ukrainian, but the latter has been advancing since 2014, and now I don’t believe in a small scale easy-win war. So, the actual conflict would require a serious commitment from Russia that takes us back to the first point.
«Also, geopolitics: if Russia actually invades another country in broad daylight – whatever’s left of her precious «sphere of influence» would crumble – as was after Georgia 2008 and Ukraine 2014. The problem with economic leverage is that Russia’s not China. While the latter could literally have concentration camps it is an integrated economy on a global scale (take semi-conductors for example). While Russia’s supply of natural resources is getting less needed with the transition to renewable ones, and can be replaced. At least in theory.»
At the same time, Olga is less optimistic about sanctions, as the Russian regime has been making efforts to become more sustainable to them since Crimea was occupied and the war on Donbas broke out. Still, personal financial restrictions may be effective to some extent, she assumes.
«I don’t think the currently proposed sanctions will have a drastic economic effect, – Olga says. – Since 2014 the regime has been preparing for such a scenario: accumulating the National wealth fund, maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment, creating their own payment system – мир (meaning world in Russian), and, though with little success, promoting import substitution.
«Yes, the ruble might collapse but the foreign currency reserves have been growing, and such a collapse will mostly affect the richer part of the population who rely on imports and many of whom aren’t ardent supporters of Putin anyway. The personal sanctions against Putin’s entourage though are most likely very annoying for him» – the student believes.
By Vitalii Holich
You can read a Ukrainian language version of this story here.
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