Photo: bigkyiv.com.ua
Mass air strikes of October 10-11. What do they mean, and what to expect next
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Consequences of missile attacks on the Lviv region. Photo: gp.gov.ua
How do you assess the situation with Russian air strikes? Isn’t it another manifestation of their terrorist nature?
Let’s look at several aspects of this issue to clearly understand what is really going on.
First: over the past month and a half, Ukraine seized the strategic initiative in the Russian-Ukrainian war. This war is already developing according to the logic of the Ukrainian side. The Russian Federation does not have any military methods to impose its will on us, and therefore – to achieve its main set goal: the elimination of Ukrainian statehood.
Russia has gone so far in its war crimes, starting with Bucha, Irpin, Borodyanka and finishing with Izium, that it will no longer be able to come out of this war with dignity. It has only one argument left – to instill terror and fear in Ukrainians. However, the effect of these actions is completely opposite. And it will not achieve the strategic goal of undermining the faith of Ukrainians in their statehood.
Enduring the strategic catastrophe in Ukraine, the Russian political elites are very well aware that after the final defeat, Putin will physically die, and the Russian state may enter the path of physical liquidation, that is, the path of disintegration. That’s why they resort to these horrors. Because, they say, if Ukrainians rebel and force their government to sit down at the negotiating table, Russia will achieve at least some kind of result.
Second: the catastrophe in the Russian-Ukrainian war, already looming over the Russians, has provoked a very powerful confrontation within Russia itself between two big «towers» – the FSB and the Ministry of Defense. The latter is currently being defeated, while the former once led its leader into strategic confusion, inclining him to the decision to start this war. So, there must be a scapegoat and there will be one, the only question is who will give way in this confrontation.
Thank you for the analysis, and now let’s get back to the air strikes. on October 10, according to various sources, from 84 to almost 100 missiles were fired over the territory of Ukraine. The Russians claim about 150 and resumed shelling the following day. Do you have reliable information about the number of missiles fired on October 10?
I am in the same information space as the rest of us. I think a more logical number is within 80. However, let me remind you that in the first days of the war, 150 missiles were fired. So, it’s not a unique phenomenon.
Why is it so painful for us now, you ask. Because the war is already in its eighth month. Our air force has learned to work very well. The Russians did not make such large flurries because they were saving missile weapons: they are basically running out of high-quality missiles. At the beginning of the war, the occupiers had approximately 10 of their varieties – starting from the «Tochka-U», which can hit targets at a distance of 120 kilometers, and ending with the «X-101», which flies the furthest – up to five thousand kilometers, as well as the infamous «Iskander», «Caliber», etc.
Anti-missile complex S-300 «Favorit»
The Russians are reaching a critical point. According to various sources, at the beginning of the war, they had almost six thousand units of the mentioned missiles, not counting the S-300 «Favorit» anti-aircraft missile systems, because they had about one and a half thousand of such installations and about five thousand missiles to them. We will take the latter out «in parentheses» because it’s an unusual use of missiles. By the way, this is the first time anti-aircraft missile systems strike land targets. And this is already a sign that Russia’s strategic potential is running out. They have already used two thirds of such weapons and have not been able to turn the tide of the war. Neither will they be able later. This is an unprecedented phenomenon. The closest historical case to us was in 2003, when the US Army used 802 Tomahawk-class BGM-109 missiles against, I emphasize, the military infrastructure of Iraq. Russia has already used more or less four thousand missiles against us. But Ukraine holds on, and will hold on. I will emphasize my main working thesis: this terror, the terror they are trying to inflict on us, actually achieves the opposite goal: our rage, hatred, our desire for revenge grows stronger every day. And, interestingly, the Russians are very aware of this, which is why they are so desperately looking for a way out of this war, and every day is now working for us, not for them.
According to official sources, almost half of the missiles fired were shot down. Strengthening anti-aircraft and anti-missile defence is one of the key tasks now. Will it be possible to solve this threat in the near future?
I am 100% sure of this. Our air defense will improve significantly. The first complexes will arrive in the coming days. However, there is a nuance: we should not stress so much on this, because the enemy is also watching our every word. We must understand that we can discuss only general things. In general, I have not the slightest doubt that the level of our air defense will increase, although it has already increased significantly in the last months of the war.
IRIS-T SLM air defense system, which Germany provided to Ukraine. Photo: Timm Ziegenthaler
But there is a very serious clarification: it’s impossible to close the sky 100%. Even the famous «Iron Dome», which protects the territory of Israel from home-made shells, cannot always completely cover the sky. The enemy will look for all the «holes» for missiles to fly through. Let me remind you that the flight of a missile is a pure radiolocation, radio physics. There is simply a huge amount of equipment, cybernetic and mathematical algorithms. This is actually a very complex science that has been studied for many years. Therefore, we must be vigilant. When we hear an air alarm, we have to take care of our own safety.
During the air strikes and the process of overcoming their consequences, Ukrainians actively collected money for the Serhiy Prytula Foundation, which announced its intention to purchase drones. Can you rate the features of the latter?
You know, it doesn’t matter how they are evaluated, what quality they will be, because everything bought in the West will definitely be effective and used against the enemy. I will use a cliché which is foreign to us, but actually working: «Everything for the front, everything for victory!». It worked during the Second World War and it does now, although hostile, but it is correct and expedient. Because in fact, not only the Armed Forces of Ukraine are fighting, but the entire Ukrainian nation. Because, as I already said, the enemy’s goal is not just to eliminate Ukrainian statehood, but the entire Ukrainian nation.
I will give an interesting example: the victims of the struggle for freedom are much smaller than the victims when a nation falls into slavery. We, Ukrainians, felt it like no other people. Let’s recall the defeat in the national liberation contest at the beginning of the 20th century. At that time, there were people who believed in the possibility of negotiating with the enemy. And what happened in the end? A genocide that never had (and won’t have) analogues in the history of mankind – Holodomor – took place in 1932-1933. During the hostilities, Ukrainians lost several hundred thousand of their best sons and daughters, while during the Holodomor – more than 10 million. There were such terrible things as cannibalism. This is all recorded, it was all done by our eternal enemy. If, God forbid, someone thinks that our capitulation (which won’t take place) may change something in the better direction – they are deeply mistaken. Excuse my intellectual egoism, but I know for sure what will happen if we lose.
According to official data, the missiles were launched from the territory of the Russian Federation. This means that they could not do it from the captured territories and want to shift attention to their long-range efforts. Would you please describe the current situation at the front?
I have my own special position: over the past month and a half, the Ukrainians have clearly seized a strategic initiative. But do not confuse this with a strategic turning point, because this requires some time. War is math. And that turning point will occur when we can say that our infantrymen have reached the borders of our state, including Crimea. However, I do not undertake to predict this at the moment.
The essence of a strategic initiative is that we impose the logic of hostilities every day. After the brilliant Kharkiv operation and the no less brilliant, but somewhat smaller-scale Yampil-Lyman operation, I am staying in the war zone. It was on those grounds that I came to the conclusion that truly high-quality military operations require informational silence. The enemy is analyzing our every word, so I took the position that I’ll not analyze or detail the sections of the front, because it will definitely be used against us.
In general, what is happening on the frontline? We felt the enemy’s pain points. This is the breakdown of supply chains with artillery ammunition, fuel and lubricants. Because even this war is 95 per cent artillery war. If in June – July the Russians could use up to 60,000 shells per day against us, which is a colossal, simply incredible number, now it has significantly decreased. And this happened thanks to our partners, who provide us with weapons and high-quality targeting, understanding the accuracy of the location of the target. Thus, we managed to qualitatively and quantitatively reduce the fire shafts. Moreover, the Russian Federation began to feel a projectile hunger. At the beginning of the war, stocks of shells reached more than 15 million units, but they had already fired a good half, and they can produce up to 120 thousand shells per month, which is actually their two-day rate.
Russian multi-purpose unmanned aircraft complex «Orlan-10». Photo: focus.ua
We also have well-developed algorithms for intercepting and breaking the enemy Orlan-10-artillery connection, which is painful and vexing for us. And this is quite a big step. In general, the tactical skill of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has increased manifold. But in order for our military to be able to perform their work efficiently, it is necessary to report as little as possible what is happening at the front, to trust our General Staff and to analyze successful military operations based on the fact.
In recent days, the Russians have not been able to achieve anything on the front line. On the contrary, they were forced to act under the conditions imposed by us.
Yes, definitely. But let’s be careful not to raise the bar of expectations, because it exhausts society and the military. Exhaustion leads to mistakes, and we have no right to make them. I would like to remind you that Russians have begun mobilization, the third one in 108 years after the mobilizations before the First World War in 1914 and during the Second World War in 1941. This means that neither Putin nor his regime is going to give up.
The mobilized Russians. Photo: armyinform.com.ua
We look too optimistically in their direction, they say, too many people are fleeing. Yes, they run away, but they don’t condemn the war, they do not deploy their weapons against their command. Their writer Saltykov-Shchedrin spoke beautifully about the Russian riots: they are kneeling in front of the manor house and rioting, scoundrels. So let’s not be fascinated by the fact that there may be some great social upheavals. In my opinion, it cannot happen anymore. If they were to take place, then it could be in the first days, up to two weeks at most. And there is no such thing. The Russians will still be able to attract up to 300,000 suicide soldiers to the fighting. Base artillery weapons have up to four thousand barrels, ordinary infantry, such as Mosin-Nagant, developed back in 1891, produced in a quantity of 37 million units. Of course, all this is not in the warehouses of the Russian Federation, but there are definitely several hundred thousand, as well as ammunition for them. For Russians, even a small infantry shovel is considered a weapon. They are not jokingly considering the option of dressing their soldiers in World War II-style shirts. They will give a sapper’s shovel, a «mosin riffle», 15 cartridges, a handful of crackers, kirze boots and – into battle. So, I repeat, let’s not be fascinated by the fact that they are so poorly armed, they will not be able to fight, because the number also matters. The Ukrainian warrior is well-equipped, with a high-quality rifle and almost a laser sight, while their soldier is armed with an axe. But when there are 10 Russians for one of ours, one must at least have time to reload the gun. This is a primitive example, but it is understandable to imagine what is happening. Therefore, only common sense and a sober assessment of reality will help us win.
So what do our civilians need to know and prepare for?
General of the army of the Russian Federation Sergey Surovikin
We must prepare for the fact that they still have 30 per cent of their missile stock. And this is at least two thousand units. This is open data, you can take it from the Internet, analyze it and come to a certain conclusion. And what they actually have can be assessed only when you have serious intelligence. The change of commander, I mean their brave General Surovikin, is also a sign that the Russians are not going to give up. Because this is probably their most serious officer with tremendous combat experience since the time of the putsch. He was one of those captains who threw tank columns against their own population. They even tried to prosecute him for exceeding his powers. It was Surovikin who commanded the Syrian occupation group for more than a year and helped Bashar Assad liberate territories captured by rebels and representatives of the terrorist organization ISIS. This person is unprincipled and very cruel. But he will not help turn the tide of the war. Its appointment is rather an intelligence sign that the enemy still has strength and does not intend to surrender. Although, in my opinion, he is already mortally wounded, a great strategic agony begins, which may last for months. And it is known that a wounded snake emits the most poison before death. We must understand this and be patient.
Sergiy Smirnov spoke
Text: Marichka Ilyina, translated by Vitalii Holich
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