In this program, we try to talk about the vision of the future Ukrainian victory: what will be a victory for us and what may become a defeat. It is very important for me to emphasize with examples of countries that achieved military victory but, after gaining peace, ended up losing. Afghanistan repelled the desire of powerful empires and countries to occupy it, but it essentially became a failed state. You frequently visit Ukraine and essentially live here, so you can look at this issue from both perspectives while maintaining a certain distance. In your opinion, what will be a victory for Ukraine in this war?
For me, this definition is clear: Ukraine’s return to the 1991 borders, the return of all occupied territories, Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the European Union, and the implementation of these and other points of President Zelensky’s peace plan. Ukraine must receive reparations and reconstruction funds from Russia or whatever entity will remain of the current Russian Federation. Ukraine must return its people because the war forced them as refugees to flee the country, and they continue to flee because of the ongoing hostilities. Successful reforms are needed so that Ukraine can finally feel safe and use its human and economic potential for development. Your people have to start living a normal life like the rest of European societies.
The peace plan has many points, all of which seem very important.
Certainly, it’s not possible to extract a single brick from this wall and declare it as our victory. In general, I believe that the Ukrainian case cannot be compared to Afghanistan, which was completely occupied. Comparisons of Ukraine with Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, or even Syria, although such thoughts have arisen, are quite illogical. Ukraine is Ukraine. Currently, Ukraine is engaged in a defensive war against Russia, which historians rightfully consider to be over a century-long, as it began in 1917. The existential threat from Russia has always been present and has now escalated into a genocidal war. It must be concluded as a Ukrainian war, the one initiated by Russia against Ukraine. We understand this, and many observers and politicians discuss how its outcome will determine the direction the world moves in the 21st century. And it is true. The formula for Ukrainian victory is not just Ukrainian; it represents a formula for new relations in the world for the next decades.
In other words, there are no analogies. It is unique.
No, there are not because this war is unique. It has already been going on for almost ten years, with a full-scale war starting on 24 February 2022, but it started on 20 February 2014. One-third of Ukraine’s independence has been marked by a state of war. This is a unique experience. Ukraine has achieved significant progress during this war. If it were a failed state or faced such a threat, it would not have survived for more than 10 years, absolutely. Western assistance in terms of armament began to arrive in early 2022. Before that, there were a few «Javelins,» but they did not make a decisive impact on the battlefield.
We are now in a high-intensity war, and Ukraine will probably not wage a war of this scale for long. We have more than 8 million refugees. Our infrastructure is being destroyed... Is there any room for compromise?
Implementation of Zelensky’s peace plan is precisely a compromise. There have already been compromises: the Minsk agreements, a peaceful path. However, Putin invalidated all of that and officially declared an ultimatum in mid-December 2021, presenting it to NATO and essentially to the United States. The message was, «Everything will be rolled back to the situation of 1997. Central and Eastern Europe will fall under my, that is, Russia’s influence, and Russia should be recognized as a great power.» Essentially, it means returning to the Yalta agreements reached in February 1945. That’s how Putin thinks, and as long as Ukraine doesn’t achieve victory, his plan will remain relevant. No one has officially revoked it. Putin hasn’t come out and said he was wrong. He believes, and Peskov voices this, that demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine are ongoing and that he is now at war with NATO.
We always seek this compromise because we want to live in peace. But at the same time, we understand there is no compromise in this situation. It seems that NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg was the first to say that when Ukraine stops fighting and shooting, it will cease to exist. When Putin stops shooting, then peace will come. There is no compromise here. There is the preservation of Ukraine, the restoration of its territorial integrity, and the implementation of all these points. As for what will happen to Russia, let the Russians and other great powers worry about that, given the presence of nuclear weapons. Now the focus should be on the needs of Ukraine, this Ukrainian formula. The needs of Ukraine, which we have discussed, should be prioritized, and everything else should derive from meeting those needs. Personally, I don’t engage in the matter of compromise. Everyone has been inclined towards it since the first day of the war in 2014, even the Pope, who wants these poisonous compromises at the expense of Ukraine. But why should it be at the expense of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people? How many more victims, tragedies should there be before we say to ourselves, «Let’s prioritize the needs of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people»?
What should be the next steps after the victory? What comes first? What is a higher priority – joining NATO or the European Union?
The priority is different. Ukraine is already ready to join NATO. We can talk about political conditions, a democratic system, and the rule of law – things that coincide with the European Union. But the Ukrainian army and the entire defence system are ready to join NATO. The Ukrainian military has already rearmed in full accordance with NATO standards. More planes will arrive, and we will have the full range of NATO weapons. It has already happened. We are only talking about assertions. In reality, NATO membership means only one thing: will other nations and countries be ready to defend and enter into a war when there is a threat to Ukraine’s territorial integrity, security, and independence? It is the question that we should ask. But it is related to that because we discuss security guarantees for Ukraine. The Vilnius summit is approaching, where they should enact some kind of security guarantee for Ukraine.
Zelensky expressed very strongly that it makes no sense for us to go if there are no real guarantees.
And this is correct. How many times can you say that the door is open? The Ukrainians have opened this door for themselves so far that there is nowhere else to go. They flew out with the doorcase.
But in Vilnius, they won’t say: «That’s it, we’ll take you in two weeks» while this war continues.
And this is not necessary. There is an example and precedent of Finland and Sweden. There is no need for membershi action plan, just an invitation, «We accept you and give you that interim time,» just as the United States and the United Kingdom gave security guarantees to Finland and Sweden. They consist of military assistance and a nuclear umbrella because security guarantees for Ukraine are not a matter of who will fight. Ukrainians are fighting this «second army of the world» very well. Already 700,000 Russian soldiers have fought in Ukraine and have been fighting since 24 February 2022. But there is a nuclear safety issue. What happens if Putin uses nuclear weapons or any weapons of mass destruction? Although blowing up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station dam is tantamount to using such weapons. What would be the response then? It is where all the discussions and talks are taking place. I follow the statements of Western leaders, including Biden, Macron, Scholz, and Sunak, and their rhetoric has changed a lot. Everyone already understands that the escalation has taken place. All our fears have been almost overcome, and the only thing left is to choose the right path. And it is precisely the guarantees of security for Ukraine that will stabilize the situation and accelerate the attainment of peace in the country, rather than hanging onto some problem, waiting to see how it unfolds, and deciding whether or not to address it based on the course of events. It doesn’t work that way. Only one formula will work: Ukraine must receive security guarantees as an element of peace. I don’t know if there will be a peace treaty with Russia, I don’t know if there will be such a peace, or if Russia will be able to come up with some kind of peace formula that it will sign and say from now on: «We will live together.» It is unlikely to happen under Putin. He initiated and has been waging this war ever since he took office as president. He will be buried by this war. His ultimate dream is to subjugate Ukraine, and now he seeks to destroy it. That is the legacy he will leave behind. But what will happen after Putin? The world will ponder that question when the time comes. However, for now, it is crucial to think about Ukraine and prioritize its needs at the center of attention.
I think Rasmussen said that if Ukraine does not receive any guarantees or prospects at the next summit, Poland and the Baltic states could start thinking about sending troops to Ukrainian territory. What do you think about this?
The Baltic states and Poland are NATO members, and they will not send troops on their own – it should be a decision of the whole Alliance.
Even if we liberate all Ukrainian territories?
Certainly. Perhaps there will be a NATO peacekeeping mission. But once the territory is liberated, what purpose will peacekeeping missions serve in Ukraine? What is needed are security guarantees: arms supplies and a nuclear «umbrella.» Ukraine doesn’t need anything else in terms of security elements. Of course, all of this should culminate in NATO membership. After that, investors will come and invest because they understand that any country will think a million times before resorting to weapons and aggression against a NATO member. We understand this, and it has already been proven today. There’s no need to invent anything. It’s about security, including normal economic and social development. Ukrainians have every right to demand this from the international community. Ukraine is not just fighting for its own independence but also for the independence of other European countries. Putin has clearly stated that Russia, and China as well, will establish a new world order based on strength and an authoritarian model of governance. They have spelled it out clearly, without any ambiguity: «What could happen? What if it doesn’t go as planned? Can we turn back?» Everything is already on the table, both the prerequisites and the final outcome of those prerequisites. When it comes to implementation, nothing new will be invented. We need to end this war in Ukraine on Ukrainian terms.
Is Ukraine truly ready to join the European Union? Sometimes I feel like official Kyiv is pushing this situation a bit. Recently, Hlibovytskyi gave a very good interview where he emphasized that if we enter the European Union without being fully prepared, without fulfilling many necessary conditions, so to speak, there is a great risk that significant segments of the population will not benefit from it. In such a case, he talks about the threat of «Orbanization» of Ukraine, and the emergence of our own Orban who will rely on Eurosceptics.
You know, we still have to live to see this problem. It is a prediction for 20-30 years in advance, but we do not have such situation. I have great respect for Yevhen Hlibovytskyi. I know him, but this is not a problem of the «Orbanization» or anything else. Since 2014, Ukraine has done a great job of implementing the standards and legislation of the European Union. Without profound reforms, Ukraine would not have had the Association Agreement, the free trade zone, and visa-free travel. I was member of Balcerowicz’s group that advised President Poroshenko and Prime Minister Groysman on reforms. The assessment of the reforms carried out in 2016-2018 was very high. In the end, in practical application, it turned out that these reforms created the foundation of Ukraine’s resistance. The Americans, the Western military – almost everyone made a mistake, underestimating the reform of the Ukrainian army and the state’s management of the entire defence sector. The same can be said about state governance and local self-government. A state that is not properly built, where mechanisms are not established, cannot effectively defend itself during such a war. Do you remember the incident in the Kerch Strait with the three Ukrainian ships and so on? President Poroshenko said, «I need to impose martial law for two months to test the state system and how it will react to full-scale aggression.» Do you remember the outcry at that time? Talk of power usurpation and so on... And it ended within a month. The 10 southeastern regions were clearly endangered.
Why did President Poroshenko and the governments of Yatsenyuk and Groysman fail to convince voters, even the current government, that their reforms were important? I watched Biden address Congress after the vote when they had overcome the danger of a possible default. He thanked the Republicans, emphasised unity, and said we are all together. It’s hard for me to imagine any Ukrainian politician making such a speech.
Okay, let’s move on from that. Were the economic reforms in Poland after 1989 successful?
Super successful.
And who is their author?
Balcerowicz.
Thirty-four years have passed since then, but most political elites still scare children with Balcerowicz. The children were born then have already become adults and have their own families. Poland has made enormous progress. You take photos from 1990 and 2020 and see everything.
Did the GDP grow fivefold?
We have overtaken Portugal in terms of wealth and average salary compared to other EU countries, almost overtaken Spain, and will soon overtake Italy. And how many people are dissatisfied? The image of these reforms in a large part of society is simply terrible. It is extremely difficult to reform and even more so to be correctly assessed... Two or maybe three generations later people will appreciate it. Ukrainians are not unique in this. Another question is how much Russian propaganda and scepticism there was from the West. They say that Ukraine is a country of corruption. Well – yes, there is corruption, of course, but there is corruption in other countries as well. If everything is so corrupted, then during this full-scale war, the Ukrainian army would be in the same state as the Russian army. Corruption has devoured everything there. Everyone would have said: «Wow, they even stole tires from armoured personnel carriers.» Everyone would say: «Oh my God, Russian corruption has turned out to be Ukraine’s greatest ally.» In reality, everything is taken in proportion.
Why is the EU needed in Ukraine? First of all, because of the funds. Without them, there would be no such Poland, except for internal reforms, internal strength, and the fact that the Poles themselves took matters into their own hands. There was the development of medium and small businesses, very hard work. The Poles turned out to be the people who worked the hardest and the longest in the entire European Union during the week. It is the truth.
Ukrainians are an extremely hardworking nation. When refugees went to Poland, two-thirds of women found employment. It’s their dream to find work, and the majority of them are enthusiastic about it. The same applies to Germany and the Netherlands. However, it requires a framework, a plan. There is a set of documents called the acquis communautaire that outline the requirements to be fulfilled. President Poroshenko used to say, «Oh, there won’t be visa-free travel! Do you know how many problems it entails?» I told him, «Well, you won’t fulfill it.» He asked, «Why won’t we fulfill it? Do you know how many points we have addressed? 144.» 144 points: changes in legislation, procedures, institutions–everything! Have they been fulfilled? Yes, they have.
By the coalition government.
The same will happen with the agreement on Ukraine’s EU membership. Here’s what I’m afraid of: Ukraine’s candidate status for EU membership is conditional. There are seven small points to fulfill, including laws, the Constitutional Court, and the civil service. However, these seven small points have not been fulfilled to this day, such as ensuring freedom of speech and so on. When there is political will and determination not just to shout about it but actually implement these points and prioritize them, they can be fulfilled. I remember how it was in Poland when I was still a member of Sejm. The entire government and parliament’s activities were focused on fulfilling the European Union’s requirements. The main committee both in the government and parliament was the European Integration Committee. It didn’t require grand visions; it required sitting down, dedicating a certain number of hours, and accomplishing tremendous work.
Then there will be training. They will allocate funds to prepare local Ukrainian communities, oblasts, and districts. The main element when this process begins will be the pressure of society. The war will end, and the processes related to Ukraine’s EU membership will take the forefront. Society will exert pressure on the government, asking why they are not fulfilling their obligations. Ukrainians are very skilled at doing this. Meanwhile, within the European Union, discussions will begin. Ukrainian agriculture has a very specific structure, with large farms predominating. When they receive subsidies for their production, the Ukrainian agricultural sector will be able to feed not only the Middle East and parts of Africa but also the entire European Union without any issues. Ukrainian black soil is the best in Europe, and perhaps even in the world. Subsidies will begin here. More than half of the EU budget is spent on agricultural subsidies. Discussions, games of interests, and negotiations will start, including the ban on imports to five countries neighboring Ukraine, concerning four types of agricultural products, mainly grain. Talks about interests will commence.
There will be no Euroscepticism because what is the alternative? What, back to Russia again? Well, no. Ukraine will only benefit from integration with the European Union – millions of people in Europe are already aware that life in Europe is better. Now try to convince the public, even if some idiots in politics say that Europe is bad. People will say to them, «What are you talking about?» especially since there are a lot of refugees from the south and east of Ukraine who used to be less enthusiastic about integration with the European Union. If you tell people in Galicia that you don’t want the European Union, you have to go out into the street, and people will tell you who you are. That’s for sure, especially for the younger Ukrainian generation, which is already absolutely European.
My daughter went to Germany last year, and this year she will go to Ireland. For them, it is already one continent.
Try telling young Ukrainians that they don’t need the European Union. They will say: «What are you talking about?» On the streets of Warsaw, in addition to Polish, you can hear Ukrainian, of course, but unfortunately, Russian as well. These are the second and third languages on the streets, and that’s how it was.
I am not afraid of this at all. The experience under Orban and Polish Eurosceptics will be an inoculation against this in the European Union. I do not doubt that the Orban problem will be solved.
The fear that exists is to win the war and become a small copy of Russia. Our intellectuals often raise this issue because there is a certain sentiment towards the Soviet Union. Even Zelensky said that not everything was bad about it. The backdrop of his press conference on the eve of the invasion was the «Mriya» plane, which was made in the Soviet Union by the Soviet Union for the Soviet Union. There are also stories with symbols. We cannot remove the emblem of the Union from the Motherland Monument, which was also a symbol of the Union. Can we simply take the symbols of the Soviet Union, attach a blue and yellow ribbon to them, and say that it is appropriated by us in this way? Can we change ourselves, be Europeans, primarily mentally? Or can this become a trap that will return us to authoritarianism? We have a duality in power, enshrined in the Constitution. Besides Yushchenko, I don’t see any serious attempt by the president to overcome this duality, which always leads to turmoil in Ukraine.
Of course, there are certain rudiments of the post-Soviet. But I see them not in the powers. The president is, in fact, supposedly a member of the executive branch, but at the same time, he is not because he is the head of state. And what is the head of state? God knows, but it sounds good. Go outside and ask who is the prime minister in Ukraine today. Yatsenyuk was a strong figure, so people knew him. Azarov was under Yanukovych, but because of the poor command of Ukrainian language and what kind of manager he was. Only a few people understood. Everyone knew the president, but Azarov was his prime minister, he could not speak Ukrainian, and if he did, he would rather keep quiet. Groysman was known because he was very active. But now, I think 70-80% of Ukrainians cannot name who the prime minister is. Is this bad or good? Is there something else in the Ukrainian Constitution? We had to change the Constitution to something else. The European system implemented in all countries since Napoleonic times has been based on the separation of powers, but in reality, the responsibility is individual. In Poland, only the prime minister has legal personality. He forms the Council of Ministers and is responsible for it. Although he can delegate his powers, he is personally responsible. And in Ukraine, it is the entire Cabinet of Ministers. To change the boundaries in some Pupkove, you need a decision of the Cabinet of Ministers, that is, all the ministers. Everyone has a vote, so they have to vote. In Poland, the Prime Minister delegates the authority to decide this to the Minister of Local Communities, and he does it. No one brings such issues to the Council of Ministers; they decide strategic issues there, and there is personal responsibility. In Ukraine, there is no personal responsibility, but collective responsibility, which means collective irresponsibility.
After the Maidan, I am proud to say that I even wrote an article stating that Ukraine had a Maidan democracy. Do you remember how the government of Yatsenyuk took the oath?
Remind me…
Yatsenyuk and his ministers came to the Maidan, and asked people if they were voting for him (laughs).
Viche! [People’s assembly for public decision-making]
Where in the world will you find another country where the head of the National Police is elected by an independent commission? This is a law enforcement and public safety agency that requires discipline, yet its head is elected by an independent commission.
Is this a lack of trust in the institution or the people there?
It is an element of the Ukrainian mentality, history, and everything else. There is no single model in Europe. They are all very different. France has had prefectures since the time of Napoleon. Poland has its system, and Germany has its system. After World War II, everyone decided that the Germans should be a federal state, not a unitary one. They have Länder. Spain has its history, and Belgium has its own. The UK is outside the EU, but it is also the United Kingdom. That is, there is no single model. Everything is accidental and historical. Instead, there are general procedures and some constituent elements. First of all, the separation of powers, adherence to democratic procedures, and the rule of law as the backbone. Now the war with Orban is not about whether Hungarians will be Lutherans or Catholics, or what will happen to marriages. It is not about that, only the appearance of it. Instead, it is about whether the courts will function as independent judicial bodies, who will appoint judges, and whether the executive and legislative branches will be subordinate to the decisions and oversight of the judicial branch. They want to be unaccountable, but that is not possible.
Furthermore, there is a discussion about how many powers we will transfer to the European Union. The «Orbanization» lies in the fact that they do not want to transfer those powers and want to be independent. Why? There is a book called «Post-Communist Mafia State: The Case of Hungary» by Balint Magyar. It is about Orban’s Hungary. Read it. It is exactly like Yanukovych’s Ukraine, I’m not exaggerating. I couldn’t understand what Orban was building his capitalism on, his oligarchy, in a poor country with no natural resources – how much can Hungary offer? But it turned out to be very simple: the cost of building a kilometer of highway in Germany a few years ago was around 10 million euros, in Poland it was 10.5 million euros, and in Hungary it was 13.5 million euros. I thought to myself: they have mountains, they need to build tunnels, there’s permafrost there, they need to put up piles, and those three million go to corruption. It’s simply embezzlement. And this is where the main problem with the «Orbanization» begins, not with something else. On top of that, Orban wants a greater Hungary. Marx was partly right: there is a base and there is a superstructure, but it is primarily this base that counts.
It is important for Ukraine not to squander its chance. What does EU membership or approaching it mean? Ukraine needs to be open to foreign investment. How did Poland manage to do it? The country was very poor and had few natural resources, and the land was not the best either. However, the people were incredibly hardworking, and the influx of foreign capital taught them about competition and the establishment of rules. Although the implementation of these rules varied, as they are not perfect everywhere, there was much to learn from. With difficulty and amid loud cries about selling our assets, the development actually took place. Ukraine needs to safeguard its citizenship, move away from oligarchy, enact strong anti-monopoly legislation, and embrace foreign investment as the key factor. Competition is essential because without it, there will be nothing.
What should be Poland’s role in post-war Ukraine? There are already rumours that thousands of Polish companies are considering opportunities for reconstruction here. However, we also have our own historical predispositions. While Yanukovych has left, traces of his legacy still remain. We, too, have experience with Big Construction projects.
Yes, it is true that Polish companies are ready and inquiring about opportunities and details. Everyone understands it; businessmen don’t need explanations. War is a great tragedy, but it concludes with peace, and the process of reconstruction begins. Everyone understands that there will be funds for the reconstruction of Ukraine. These will be significant resources, and from this pie, it is important to cut ourselves a fair share through honest labor, not through any kind of manipulations.
Everyone should be allowed to participate on a competitive equal footing, which means open tenders. Not the way the Chinese came in: they set one price, a lower one, did part of the work in advance, and then said: «Listen, we do not fit into the estimate, so please raise it.» It is not normal, and the amount in the estimate doubled. There must be competition, open rules, and the rule of law so that you can go to court. There must be certainty that there is an institution I can turn to, where fair decisions are made without bribery. Judicial system reform is a key factor, but not just in the criminal court system. The lion’s share lies in the administrative courts. I have worked with Balcerowicz and various trade chambers, and they all pointed to judicial reform and its issues. I said, «Wait, what are your main problems?» It turned out that 90% of the problems were not about someone stealing or deceiving someone else; they were solely about officials. Therefore, administrative law and administrative courts are the key to Ukraine’s success. When they administer justice as they should, independently and fairly, then Ukraine will be on a good path to development.
And in Poland, we need to preserve democracy so that Poland can return to the image and status it had. It is a model country of modernization, democratisation, and Europeanization. It is not about having gays and respecting the rights of all LGBT people. Europeanization means accepting standards and living by those standards. If Poland helps Ukraine in this, its role will be natural, something that Ukrainians are used to, something that they saw after February 24, that is. Therefore, it is not without reason that Poles are now in the first place among the nations friendly to Ukraine in the perception of Ukrainians, and let it remain so.
How to overcome the historical traumas of the last century? What do the Poles who keep raising these questions expect from Ukraine? What should Ukraine do to change it?
The latest outbreak was caused by a speech by a spokesperson for the Polish Foreign Ministry. In the end, one of the ruling government’s propagandists said: «In fact, we have to understand what we want from these Ukrainians: for them to say mea culpa once – my fault – or will we keep saying that this is not enough?»
Yes, there have been apologies from presidents and prime ministers. What else should happen?
Currently, churches are preparing some kind of declaration, gestures of reconciliation. I support this, but I fear that there may ultimately be inflation in these gestures. What will be the result? I am a disciple of Jacek Kuroń, a well-known Polish politician who made significant contributions to Poland’s independence. He was a great friend of Ukraine and always emphasized the importance of identifying the victims. Because when you don’t identify the victims, it means the war is not over. We need to pay respect to those victims and remember them. I am pleased that the identification program for Ukrainian victims has been completed at the Ukrainian Catholic University in Lviv, and now the program for identifying Polish victims is beginning. When families and individuals find their surnames, their loved ones are recognized, then we have a chance to turn this page. We must avoid the speculations that unfortunately occur. Otherwise, we will be talking about this for another hundred years. Each anniversary will come, and the outcry will resurface. I believe that awareness and understanding of this issue are slowly emerging because there have been many gestures. And these gestures need to be repeated because we must remember these tragic events. But we must remember the tragic events from both sides because it’s a two-way street. I think there is a problem in Poland regarding this. The late Cardinal Lubomyr Husar, with whom I had a long acquaintance, told me in 2013 that there is a question of whether both sides are actually ready to forgive. I believe this is crucial – the readiness itself. Reflection on the Polish side is starting to be present, thank God.
Interview conducted by Andriy Saychuk
Translated by Yulian Lahun
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