The United States has issued a warning to Poland that Russia may be preparing an armed provocation against a NATO country in order to test the Alliance's resolve. This refers to a possible horizon of several months. This is reported by "European Pravda" with reference to publications The Telegraph and Onet.
According to sources, Washington has allegedly warned Warsaw that Moscow is considering options for limited provocations, particularly in order to force Western partners to reduce or suspend support for Ukraine.
Among the possible scenarios are drone attacks on critical infrastructure, including power plants, or simulating a massive air strike to provoke the activation of Poland's air defense systems.
The option of a hybrid attack in border areasis also being discussed, likely involving Belarusian military personnel. In this case, actions could be presented as an accidental border violation or an incident with "lost" soldiers due to GPS problems, or as an alleged rescue operation after an accident.
According to the publication's interlocutors, the Kremlin may expect Poland to refrain from a harsh response, particularly under political pressure from allies. In this scenario, the absence of consequences after the provocation could be perceived by Russia as a success.
It is separately noted that one of the possible conditional scenarios could be a demand to cease support for Ukraine in exchange for the withdrawal of forces from Polish territory.
Sources close to the Polish authorities claim that the US regularly informs Warsaw about Russia's potential plans for actions on NATO's eastern flank.
At the same time, representatives of security structures of the Baltic states and one NATO diplomat consider the risk of such provocations to be real. Information operations in which responsibility for incidents may be placed on Ukraine are also allowed.
Potential escalation directions also mentioned include territories of Belarus and the Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation.
Previously, Latvian intelligence and NATO defense departments have repeatedly warned about the risks of hybrid provocations by Russia, including the use of drones and other pressure tools to influence the Alliance's policy towards Ukraine.
