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The President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenka, has no means to enter the war with Ukraine. He hands over all his stocks of ammunition, equipment, weapons, and personnel, allowing the Russian Federation to recruit its country’s mobilization resources. The fact that Belarus will enter the war tomorrow is a doubtful situation.
As for the Russian Federation, yes: they want to create a group of forces together with Belarus, and they are doing it under the banner of a «union state». This means that these military groups within the Belarusian-Russian army will be commanded by the Russian General Staff. At the same time, Putin won’t need Lukashenka’s consent that these units join the war. But it can probably be in December or in the following year. We will see. In any case, one must understand that Putin will not stop until we stop him. As long as he breathes, he will try to fight with Ukraine to defeat us.
However, even if they gather a group of 40-50 thousand, there will be no such invasion as on February 24. No columns deep into Ukraine should be expected. We are turning the border into a line of defense, and the battle will take place on the border. They can create a second front for us, but breaking through our border and entering Ukraine is not an implementable task for them today. Why? After all, the basis of this group will not be regular units, but those formed from mobilized ones. This is a completely different quality of troops. They will also have Soviet, obsolete equipment, which they are removing from long-term storage, because there is almost no modern or modernized equipment left in the Russian army.
As for bringing the «Yars» and «Kinzhal» weapons to the border with Ukraine: no one is moving the «Yars» anywhere. This is an intercontinental ballistic missile with a minimum launch range of 5,000 km. It makes no sense to drag it to the border of Ukraine. In order to hit Ukraine, this complex must be launched from beyond the Urals.
If the «Kinzhals» are moved [toward the border], they can really affect the situation, but as far as it’s known, there are only a few dozen of them left. «Kinzhal» is a missile launched by «Iskander» (ballistic missile), and Russians released a considerable amount of them in the attacks on us. They are launched from an airplane, and have a range of 2,000 km.
The Russians are shelling Ukraine en masse, because they have considerable problems on the battlefield: being unable to do anything and keeping the retreat, they chose a different tactic: the main task is to lay down the energy system of Ukraine, and make us freeze and sit without light and heat. The Russians want us to surrender, Putin has one goal – the political absorption of Ukraine, and he is following it.
Also, the Russian dictator realized that we have a «hole» in air defense, and he uses it. The Russians are completely destroying our energy system, and they are trying to blackmail the West with this, because by destroying our energy system, they can provoke the automatic shutdown of reactors at nuclear plants, because there will be no consumers and no loads on the power units. This is a critical emergency situation. Thus, Putin wants to intimidate Europe so that the EU forces us to win on Putin’s terms.
Translated by Vitalii Holich
The author’s column is a reflection of the author’s subjective position. The editors of «Tvoe Misto» do not always share the opinions expressed in the columns, and are ready to give those who disagree the opportunity for a reasoned answer.
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